NZD: New Zealand Dollar is in the focus of traders

Forex analytics: The New Zealand Dollar rate remains at the low level at the Forex currency market at the beginning of the week, because market has not any interest in risky positions. External background is still complex, which prevents from regaining from the previous sales.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/US, however it goes down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic ...

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Weekly Focus: Large Drop in Commodity Prices

In the past week financial markets started to question the sustainability of the high
commodity price levels as there was increasing evidence around the globe that
particularly the high crude oil prices are starting to take their toll on the global economy.
The drop in commodity prices was aggravated by

FOREX: Focus Turns to US Data After China Sinks Risk Appetite

Sentiment trends are still in focus, with all eyes now focused on the US data calendar after hawkish comments from China’s central bank fueled risk aversion overnight.

Market Focus Shifts to Key Event Risk In the Form of ECB Rate Decision

We have begun to see what could be at least a short-term shift in the construct of the markets, but all eyes are now on Mr. Trichet and company to see whether the ECB does indeed signal near term hikes...

Weekly Focus: US Public Finances in Focus

The Fed shifted to a slightly more cautious tone and downgraded its growth forecast. US growth dipped below 2% in Q1 11 but should recover in Q2 11.

Bond yields in Greece continue to soar as speculation over a Greek restructuring intensifies.

The growth impact from the earthquake was larger than expected

New EURUSD Testing 200-day MA; U.S. - China Focus on Trade and Currency Policy

EURUSD is testing its 200-day MA, always a significant resistance/support level, but this time the impulse is generated by the apparent strength of the U.S. recovery with ADP numbers providing today`s justification for the Euro sales. In Europe meanwhile, the CDS market is quiet, and volumes are light, but ECB officials are grumbling about inflation, but it is unclear if they will, at any point, move to raise rates. Clearly, raising rates is not what the market envisions for the ECB at the moment, although perhaps the same cannot be said about Europe`s citizens, who are feeling the impact of the depreciating Euro in the loss of their purchasing power. Matters have not yet progressed to a level that would make an ECB rate rise a serious possibility, but if the Euro continues to depreciate, and commodity prices remain robust, there is a chance that the ECB will have to raise a few times if only to maintain the facade that it is acting to ensure that its legal obligations are being met. Meawhile, in spite of a generally optimistic mood, Ireland`s CDS are back around the 620 bps level, which is the record set before the bailouts in 2010, but volumes are said to be light.

In the East, much of the focus is on the oncoming talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China. Today, as we noted here, Yang Jiechi and Tim Geithner met to discuss some of the usual points of contention between the two nations, and while neither side would like to see an open and public break, it is clear that the viewpoints are opposed to each other in most topics. The U.S. wants to convince China to adopt a position that is to the benefit of the Chinese themselves, while the thankful Chinese are more interested in defining what is good for them. Be it as it may, we believe that this year will see some interesting developments in this crucial relationship, and, as it is obvious that the Chinese will not cooperate with American demands, appeals to the WTO in order to sort out the trade disputes are highly likely.

Our assessment of President Hu JinTao is that he is an incorruptible traditionalist in both his commitment to the power of the CCP, and the role of China as benevolent contributer to world peace, even though this may not be appreciated in the same terms by outsiders. We believe, therefore, that the complaints and protests voiced by the Chinese are for the most part genuine, and not just the consequence of pragmatism or opportunism, as they are generally believed to be. But this makes the issues at hand even harder to resolve, because, as both sides see the bilateral issues from a perspective of morality and right or wrong, the tendency, the desire to compromise is lessened, leading to the deadlocks that we are observing. The U.S. has a lot of qualms about certain aspects of China`s economic model the predatory practices by government authorities against foreign companies, forced technology transfers, and the lack of intellectual property protection through legal channels. These are of course not new; but now that the symbiotic relationship between the U.S. corporate sector and the exploited Chinese labor force is less profitable, and open to question due to rise of domestic unemployment, that which was easily ignored yesterday makes it to the top of the agenda in today`s discussions. For the Chinese, not much has changed, since they would like to go on with business as usual for as long as possible, but that is certainly not a possibility in this fundamentally different world that we live in after the events of 2007-2009.

A breakdown of relations between China and the U.S. would be disastrous for the world, but we suspect that a significant worsening of relations is almost impossible to avoid given the difficulties faced by the rulers of both nations. American politicans need scapegoats, since they won`t get any more votes by telling the people that they are living with the consequences of their past excesses. Since the so-called Islamic Terrorism is no longer a matter of excitement nowadays, the most obvious target for blame is China, with its obsolete and  alien form of government, distant and foreign culture, large size, and its potentially dangerous ascent into world power status in the course of just 20 years or so.  The Chinese, on the other hand, have to control a jingoistic population that is already dissatisfied with the way the government handles international relations, and, if the economy slows down considerably, will probably demand a hardline approach to foreign affairs in order to continue to tolerate communist rule. Let`s not forget for a moment that the world is changing, and controlling a sophiticated urban population is not as easy as it is to keep a largely illiterate mass of peasants under the thumb. All these, and many other factors imply to us that the U.S.-Chinese relationship will go through some severe tests this decade.

Against all these the coming talks between Presidents Hu and Obama are important, but are unlikely to generate groundbreaking changes. In a sign of this, today the Chinese were repeating their conviction that the yuan issue is unrelated to the trade imbalance between the two countries, just one day after the President, National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, and Yang Jiechi met to discuss the issue of trade imbalances. The developments so far leave little cause for being very encouraged about how the matter, but we`ll continue to keep track of them because of their pivotal role in determining where the world economy is headed.

Markets Focus on Today's Eurozone Debt Auctions, CDS Rates Rise, Stocks Fall

Market sentiment was dampened yesterday by today`s large debt auctions in the Eurozone, where the weaker members of the union will be borrowing at least $43 billion. Credit default swaps rose on Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, and while the CDS index that measures that default risk of Western European governments rose to match a record yield of 228 bps. There is a strong sense of tension all around the world as the results of these events approach.

Stocks were lower in response, and in Asia, Indonesia and India were the biggest losers. India`s not being treated very kindly nowadays after the scandals that shook the country a short while ago, while Indonesia is suffering from a worrisome inflation trend in line with the rest of the region.  In Europe, naturally, the falls were sharper, while U.S. markets performed reasonably well in spite of the tense atmosphere.

The dollar, naturally, gained against almost all of its peers, while oil rose on anticipation that Asian demand will remain strong. We are pessimistic on oil in the near term, and expect it to reverse course if the European problems intensify, or the Chinese aggressively continue with their rate rises. Commodities are likely to gain to some extent this year as the Fed continues its easy money policies, but perhaps the first half will not be as rosy as some seem to be expect. Gold, meanwhile, should stay on its upward track, notwithstanding the severity of its up and down swings as volatility remains high.

Today`s events are obviously of great significance. What we expect is that, while auctions will find sufficient buyers, in line with the trend of the months, rates will be higher, and money will be supplied at a high price. Regardless of the result, markets are unlikely to be convinced one way or the other, since lacklustre demand is unlikely to signify a withdrawal of borrowers, and a strong showing doesn`t imply much for the future. This makes sense, because the debt issues are long term and will not be settled by one or two auction`s results. If Ireland is shunned by creditors, however, we suspect that it will only trigger stronger European intervention, and not capitulation, as some commentators seem to expect. It is hard to see, as we like to emphasize, how they can reverse course after committing so much to the economic and political integration of the continent. And while perhaps dropping some aspect of the European Monetary Union doesn`t signify a lot from a pragmatic viewpoint, the same cannot be explained to voters in the region. All that convinces us that European politicans will only capitulate  when they are absolutely out of options, but with the Fed allied to them on the other side of the ocean it is hard to see how that even sort of situation would develop.

In summary we don`t expect much to happen as long the present governments remain in place. But we still believe that the Eurozone will disintegrate at some point in some way, only with the additional qualification that this development will be the consequence of powerful political events, and not some predictable surrender to speculators and the markets.

NFP Shows a Mixed Picture, Traders Focus on the Unemployment Rate

Stocks are universally higher today, and currencies like the AUD and TRY are performing well on the back of the anticipated improvement in U.S. unemployment picture, as well as the generally improved sentiment in Asia for the past weeks due to the stronger and stabler performance of the USD. Gold is also higher after rising by more than $20 yesterday.

Among today`s releases we are most attentive to the improvement in the manufacturing sector reported in the NFP release, which is fully in line with the long-term perspective of a U.S. economy that depends a lot more on manufacturing than it used to do in the past decades. The trend is in place, and will probably intensify in the coming years, since the depreciation of the USD, although slow, promises a great improvement in profitability of the sector. 

Euribor rises to 1.88%

Due to the uncertainties surrounding the future course of action of the ECB, and, to a much greater extent, the nature and scope of future bailouts, 3-month Euribor rate is higher by one basis point today, and is expected to go higher in the next months. The Euribor trend currently in place stretches all the way back to April 2010, coinciding with the beginning of the Greek crisis, and we expect it to define the Euro interbank market until a resolution is found.

The Germans and the French are experiencing some difficulties in finding a common ground over the size of planned bond buybacks, with the Germans generally opposed to greater commitment of funds, while the French support far greater flexibility in the availability of bailout cash.  Ireland and other bailout partners have been requesting less punitive interest rates, but this is opposed by the Germans who would like to see severe punishment discourage future errors.

January payrolls rise by 36,000; unemployment rate falls to 9%

U.S. NFP rose by a very modest 36,000 which is the smallest gain of the past four months, versus projections by analysts foreseeing a jump of about 146,000 for December. Construction, transportation jobs and the manufacturing sector are understood to have been badly impacted by the cold weather in the north, with some 707,000 workers reported having been prevented from going to work as a consequence, but even with this caveat the fact remains that the economy is still struggling to stage a significant improvement in the labor market. Excluding government jobs, the total rise in payrolls was 50,000.

At the same time the unemployment rate, which is calculated from a different sampling, fell to 9% against forecasts expecting it to come  between 9.2% to 9.6 percent. The household survey showed a fall of 590,000 in the number of unemployed. Revisions to the previous NFP numbers reaching back to 2006 have also been released, showing that the economy has lost around 8.75 million jobs in consequence of the recession, while adding 909,000 for 2010.

The report allows both the bulls and the bears enough room for revising and reforming their viewpoints, confirming that the labor market remains  very weak, but at the same time providing a more positive reading if one focuses on the household survey. On the whole, the report is unlikely to change anyone`s analysis to a great extent, especially because we know through Bernanke`s statements that the Fed is committed to maintaining its program for now. PIMCO`s Bill Gross is reported as saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates for the next 12 months, and we agree with this viewpoint, seeing a slim chance of any rate rise provided that the Fed is not forced to move in that direction by the bond market.

New EURUSD Testing 200-day MA; U.S. - China Focus on Trade and Currency Policy

EURUSD is testing its 200-day MA, always a significant resistance/support level, but this time the impulse is generated by the apparent strength of the U.S. recovery with ADP numbers providing today`s justification for the Euro sales. In Europe meanwhile, the CDS market is quiet, and volumes are light, but ECB officials are grumbling about inflation, but it is unclear if they will, at any point, move to raise rates. Clearly, raising rates is not what the market envisions for the ECB at the moment, although perhaps the same cannot be said about Europe`s citizens, who are feeling the impact of the depreciating Euro in the loss of their purchasing power. Matters have not yet progressed to a level that would make an ECB rate rise a serious possibility, but if the Euro continues to depreciate, and commodity prices remain robust, there is a chance that the ECB will have to raise a few times if only to maintain the facade that it is acting to ensure that its legal obligations are being met. Meawhile, in spite of a generally optimistic mood, Ireland`s CDS are back around the 620 bps level, which is the record set before the bailouts in 2010, but volumes are said to be light.

In the East, much of the focus is on the oncoming talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China. Today, as we noted here, Yang Jiechi and Tim Geithner met to discuss some of the usual points of contention between the two nations, and while neither side would like to see an open and public break, it is clear that the viewpoints are opposed to each other in most topics. The U.S. wants to convince China to adopt a position that is to the benefit of the Chinese themselves, while the thankful Chinese are more interested in defining what is good for them. Be it as it may, we believe that this year will see some interesting developments in this crucial relationship, and, as it is obvious that the Chinese will not cooperate with American demands, appeals to the WTO in order to sort out the trade disputes are highly likely.

Our assessment of President Hu JinTao is that he is an incorruptible traditionalist in both his commitment to the power of the CCP, and the role of China as benevolent contributer to world peace, even though this may not be appreciated in the same terms by outsiders. We believe, therefore, that the complaints and protests voiced by the Chinese are for the most part genuine, and not just the consequence of pragmatism or opportunism, as they are generally believed to be. But this makes the issues at hand even harder to resolve, because, as both sides see the bilateral issues from a perspective of morality and right or wrong, the tendency, the desire to compromise is lessened, leading to the deadlocks that we are observing. The U.S. has a lot of qualms about certain aspects of China`s economic model the predatory practices by government authorities against foreign companies, forced technology transfers, and the lack of intellectual property protection through legal channels. These are of course not new; but now that the symbiotic relationship between the U.S. corporate sector and the exploited Chinese labor force is less profitable, and open to question due to rise of domestic unemployment, that which was easily ignored yesterday makes it to the top of the agenda in today`s discussions. For the Chinese, not much has changed, since they would like to go on with business as usual for as long as possible, but that is certainly not a possibility in this fundamentally different world that we live in after the events of 2007-2009.

A breakdown of relations between China and the U.S. would be disastrous for the world, but we suspect that a significant worsening of relations is almost impossible to avoid given the difficulties faced by the rulers of both nations. American politicans need scapegoats, since they won`t get any more votes by telling the people that they are living with the consequences of their past excesses. Since the so-called Islamic Terrorism is no longer a matter of excitement nowadays, the most obvious target for blame is China, with its obsolete and  alien form of government, distant and foreign culture, large size, and its potentially dangerous ascent into world power status in the course of just 20 years or so.  The Chinese, on the other hand, have to control a jingoistic population that is already dissatisfied with the way the government handles international relations, and, if the economy slows down considerably, will probably demand a hardline approach to foreign affairs in order to continue to tolerate communist rule. Let`s not forget for a moment that the world is changing, and controlling a sophiticated urban population is not as easy as it is to keep a largely illiterate mass of peasants under the thumb. All these, and many other factors imply to us that the U.S.-Chinese relationship will go through some severe tests this decade.

Against all these the coming talks between Presidents Hu and Obama are important, but are unlikely to generate groundbreaking changes. In a sign of this, today the Chinese were repeating their conviction that the yuan issue is unrelated to the trade imbalance between the two countries, just one day after the President, National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, and Yang Jiechi met to discuss the issue of trade imbalances. The developments so far leave little cause for being very encouraged about how the matter, but we`ll continue to keep track of them because of their pivotal role in determining where the world economy is headed.

Markets Focus on Today's Eurozone Debt Auctions, CDS Rates Rise, Stocks Fall

Market sentiment was dampened yesterday by today`s large debt auctions in the Eurozone, where the weaker members of the union will be borrowing at least $43 billion. Credit default swaps rose on Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, and while the CDS index that measures that default risk of Western European governments rose to match a record yield of 228 bps. There is a strong sense of tension all around the world as the results of these events approach.

Stocks were lower in response, and in Asia, Indonesia and India were the biggest losers. India`s not being treated very kindly nowadays after the scandals that shook the country a short while ago, while Indonesia is suffering from a worrisome inflation trend in line with the rest of the region.  In Europe, naturally, the falls were sharper, while U.S. markets performed reasonably well in spite of the tense atmosphere.

The dollar, naturally, gained against almost all of its peers, while oil rose on anticipation that Asian demand will remain strong. We are pessimistic on oil in the near term, and expect it to reverse course if the European problems intensify, or the Chinese aggressively continue with their rate rises. Commodities are likely to gain to some extent this year as the Fed continues its easy money policies, but perhaps the first half will not be as rosy as some seem to be expect. Gold, meanwhile, should stay on its upward track, notwithstanding the severity of its up and down swings as volatility remains high.

Today`s events are obviously of great significance. What we expect is that, while auctions will find sufficient buyers, in line with the trend of the months, rates will be higher, and money will be supplied at a high price. Regardless of the result, markets are unlikely to be convinced one way or the other, since lacklustre demand is unlikely to signify a withdrawal of borrowers, and a strong showing doesn`t imply much for the future. This makes sense, because the debt issues are long term and will not be settled by one or two auction`s results. If Ireland is shunned by creditors, however, we suspect that it will only trigger stronger European intervention, and not capitulation, as some commentators seem to expect. It is hard to see, as we like to emphasize, how they can reverse course after committing so much to the economic and political integration of the continent. And while perhaps dropping some aspect of the European Monetary Union doesn`t signify a lot from a pragmatic viewpoint, the same cannot be explained to voters in the region. All that convinces us that European politicans will only capitulate  when they are absolutely out of options, but with the Fed allied to them on the other side of the ocean it is hard to see how that even sort of situation would develop.

In summary we don`t expect much to happen as long the present governments remain in place. But we still believe that the Eurozone will disintegrate at some point in some way, only with the additional qualification that this development will be the consequence of powerful political events, and not some predictable surrender to speculators and the markets.

IMF Complains about Eurozone Inaction, Markets Focus on Irish Budget

A short time from now, the results of the final Irish vote on the new and severe austerity budget of Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will be made public. In all likelihood, the budget will pass, but a failure has the potential to send the entire market upside down so soon after the jump in CDS and bond rates last month. Reflecting this sentiment, the Euro has settled near the unchanged level after moving up and down for much of the day, while the USD is lower by as much as 1% after making similar movements during the day. Gold has been volatile, and after testing $1429 and breaking a new record during the day, it is down by around $5 on the day as this is being written. Stocks, however, are up across the board, with weakness limited to Japan and Asia. Europe and the U.S. are up strongly.

Today the Fed is reported to have continued the heavy bond purchases of yesterday, and today's action recorded an all-time high acceptance rate of 41.5% in two separate bond purchases worth $6.8 billion, and $16.4 billion. Apparently in response to the weak Friday NFP number, Ben Bernanke has committed his institution to a very aggressive course where the self-imposed $600 billion limit could be exceeded easily. Certainly, data releases in 2011 may show some improvement in the U.S. economy, but it is unlikely to be strong, and with the European issues in the minds of traders and consumers, we find it difficult to believe that a significant change in the growth path of the U.S. can be achieved. Most statistics earlier this year implied that the U.S. would be in a recession by now, and it is not too much to assume that the revival in activity is at least in part due to the expectations of aggressive Fed intervention in the economy and the market. As such, we suspect that as the end of the announced bond purchase period approaches, investors and consumers may begin to retrench once again, necessitating a further dose of quantitative easing by the Fed, which seems only too willing to supply as much of the favored medicine as possible, with almost no concern about the side effects. The USD, in particular, is the sufferer.

In Europe, as we mentioned, it is more of the same today, with limited directionality in the market action of the most important segments, but we note the critism of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF director who commented today that "the euro zone has to provide a comprehensive solution to this problem," after meeting Greek prime minister George Papandreou in Athens, adding that "the piecemeal approach is not a good one." His agreement with the Greeks is not a surprise, since they are on the receiving end of aid, while the IMF director's main interest is ensuring that the global financial system is spared the shock of a Euro breakup at all costs. The Germans, who appear to be the main objectors to the proposals of improved EFSF coverage, and joint bond issuance, are the ones to pay, and their position is equally understandable. They have been fleeced enough in consequence of their commitment to the European project, and that they don't appreciate any more of the sour dish is not to be blamed on the choosiness or gluttony. And yet, here lies the crux of the matter, since when all sides have meaningful, solid arguments and positions that appear difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, a deadlock has been reached, and a solution will be much more difficult to find. That is what seems to have happened in the Eurozone. To be sure, the bailout party is not over yet, since the politicians will yield once they are cornered again and forced to make a yes-or-no decision. But this cannot go on forever.

In yet other Eurozone and ECB news, we have the quaint announcement today that another round of stress tests will be conducted in February, since it has become apparent that the market does not take the July's mock-examination seriously. The problem that the ECB faces in this issue is that each time they undertake to conduct successively stricter tests, and fail to apply criteria as severe as the market would like to see, they risk creating a self-sustaining cycle whereby investors unnerved by the dishonesty of the ECB sell-off on risk, and undermine the financial status of the banks which the tests had tried to assess. And when the deterioration in the situation is so sharp that it can't be ignored anymore, the central bank moves to repeat its actions, with unsavory results. Let's hope that this time the ECB will not be as conservative in its risk assessment as it is with its monetary policy.

3-month Euribor is one bp higher today at 1.029% vs. yesterday's 1.028%. The PBOC kept the USDCNY rate near unchanged.

Today is a day of suspense and rest for the markets, and it is possible that trading will go into a weaker tone as the end of the year approaches. One must not underestimate the possibility of a Euro rally, however, since many traders will prefer to close positions heading into this period in order to cash out on profits, reassess strategies, and for bookkeeping purposes. All that could lead to a Euro rally, but we don't think that the 2011 outlook for the currency is bright given the large number of open questions that await their answers. The Fed may be determined to supply as much cash to the market as it needs in order to fulfill the narrowminded goals that it has defined for itself, but Eurozone problems, and the future of China remain the key issues nonetheless, and may easily undo or make irrelevant whatever choices the Bernanke team may take.

Stocks, Currencies Rally as Markets Focus on Year-End

Bourses have been doing very well today, as European stocks outperformed U.S. equities. Asia is also showing a strong performance, with Japan being the main weakness in the region. Low volumes, and lack of meaningful data has been exploited by those few who are active in the market in order to drive prices higher. Bigger actors are probably evaluating the year and keeping trade volumes to at a minimum.

Data from the U.S. continues to be positive in line with our generally U.S.-positive outlook for next year, although this does not imply that the USD is a good choice for safety and stability. The U.S., like Japan, is going through a period of recuperation and readjustment, which, by definition, does not involve radical changes and upheavals. The shocks and scandals are mostly over. The GSEs are nationalized, Madoff is in jail, investment banks are no more, government intervention is ubiquitous, the private sector is continuing to cut costs, while the consumer is  cautious about risk taking, after seeing what happened to the foreclosed neighbor, or the laid-off worker. None of this is good from a growth perspective of course, but slumber is better than panic or intoxication, two states between which the rest of the world seems to oscillate as a great deal of effort is made to place events and actors into context.

In many ways, the U.S. is benefiting and will benefit from being the first to suffer the consequences of the global speculative bubble that developed, in large part, after the goobal interest rate cuts at the beginning of the century. Yet there can be no doubt that no nation will be isolated from the consequences. Imbalances are not troublesome for those in deficit, they are also troubling for lenders, as the spate of foreclosures in the U.S. has demonstrated to great effect.

No one has ever thought that big banks would be fine while borrowers defaulted just because they happened to be on the opposite side of the mortgage transactions. What  would convince us, then, that just because China and the Asians are creditors, they will fare better than the borrowers in the Western World. If Citibank or Bank of America suffer when homeowners default, why do we believe that the Chinese will be fine, when they are the real lenders, after all, to cause all the massive bubbles and balloons on this side of the ocean?

The Chinese can no longer inflate America  and its markets in order to create demand like they did in the past, so the wise government there is now applying its addictive medicine to its own economy in order to create the same fake demand that all but destroyed the U.S. economy during 2007Q3-2009Q1. Just like most speculators were blind to the mortage bubble back then, they are blind to the domestic Chinese bubble now, believing that, because the Chinese have huge cash reserves and a strong export sector, they can weather any storm. This argument is in fact very similar to that advanced in defence of Merril Lynch, Lehman Bros, and others, when they had almost incredible profits during the boom years. Yet those profits did not prove sufficient to save them from bankruptcy, because of the crucial term, "leverage". And so, what makes us believe that the Chinese will be able escape the cataclysmic consequences of their own bubble blowing, once their gigantic edifice of leverage and monetary inflation collapses, as it inevitably will?

The developing world story is a real story, and in spite of all the risks, the gains that have been made over the past two decades are real and will lead to a real convergence in performance around the world. We are convinced that the days when certain parts of the world were permanently backword are over for now. The immense improvement in communication technologies, the widespread availability of  information at all levels has accelerated the pace at which knowledge is shared around the globe, and, as most people believe, permanently improved the growth capacity of the world as a whole. But none of this excludes the possibility that bubbles will develop, and none of it implies in any way that people, investors, or voters have become any wiser. All that it means is that they have become more similar, and their actions and choices are easier to analyze with a single set of data that is applicable to very different geographies and cultures. The fact that few nations, perhaps with the exclusion of sub-Saharan Africa, for now, will be left behind in technological and scientific advancement of the human race does not mean that the human race as a whole cannot go through difficult and turbulent phases. Indeed, the basic law of oscillations makes us think that the more momentous the upward swings are, the more momentous the downward movements will be.

These facts remain facts as long as the global economy is run by people who are delighted to  see citizens enjoy the fruits of temporary bubbles and dreams. Emotional approaches towards economic issues is bound to yield disastrous consequences, as history has shown us time and again, but let`s allow our hearts the freedom to have more hope these days, as the year approaches its end.