GBP/JPY's Short-term Elliott Wave Count

The GBP/JPY is declining as anticipated after a 3-wave rally that appears to have been a gartley retracement pattern.

The bearish scenario is contained within the rising channel, and will open up further with a break below the channel, and 78.6% retracement at 134.70 as seen in the 1H chart.

The bullish

Bonds End April on a High Note

Treasuries put in their best performance in eight months during April with 10-year yields sliding by 17 basis points while two-year yields fell more aggressively by 20 basis points. The Fed said it wasn't thinking about ending its extended period of low interest rates anytime soon as it lowered the

What the Fed has Done to the Dollar

The headline event for this week was the FOMC statement, which was followed by the first ever press conference. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the Fed could maintain a near zero percent interest rate policy till the August 9th meeting or possibly later. The Fed also confirmed that it

3 Top Themes This Week: Bernanke Green Lights "Risk On", AUD at Record Highs, ...

The historic FOMC decision and press conference came and went this week, for the most part we got the same statement as we had in March, with a slight more emphasis on inflation.

Fed Chairman's performance came through "dovish" as he reiterated the need to keep rates low. We did see

Weekly Focus: US Public Finances in Focus

The Fed shifted to a slightly more cautious tone and downgraded its growth forecast. US growth dipped below 2% in Q1 11 but should recover in Q2 11.

Bond yields in Greece continue to soar as speculation over a Greek restructuring intensifies.

The growth impact from the earthquake was larger than expected

The Weekly Bottom Line

This was a busy week on the economic calendar, but two items in particular captured headlines. First was the advanced Q1 GDP report. As we anticipated, the headline growth figure of 1.8% was disappointing. Behind this unfriendly number, however, the details of the report were fairly encouraging. Upward revisions meant

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

After much anticipation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at last held his press conference with select journalists this week. As expected, the mostly prepared remarks contained no new information. Some of the more telling aspects of the conference, however, helped provide greater insight into the Fed's economic outlook, inflation and inflation

The USD Swoons; More Weakness is Likely

The Fed consigned the greenback to another bout of weakness, signalling that easy policy would remain in place for the foreseeable future, and markets were only too happy to oblige, sending the USD index to lows last seen in 2008. We see little on the fundamental horizon that could alter

Fed Policy Direction and the USD Index

This past week is one that will likely find its way onto the pages of financial textbooks that have yet to be written. Wednesday's FOMC rate announcement kicked off the first of many accompanying press conferences designed to “further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy

GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY recovered to 137.01 last week before losing momentum and retreated from there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias will be neutral this week and deeper fall could be seen. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'll stay cautiously bullish in the cross

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY's rebound from 116.46 extended to 121.82 last week but lost momentum since then. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. Another rise remains in favor as long as 118.49 minor support holds and above 121.81 will bring another rally to 123.31 resistance

EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

EUR/CHF continued to consolidate in range above 127.28 last week. With 1.2971 resistance intact, there is no change in the bearish view. That is, consolidations from 124.01 is likely finished with three waves up to 1.3234 already. Fall from there is still in progress and below 1.2728 will turn bias

EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 0.8936 last week, EUR/GBP failed to sustain gain there and retreated. Initial bias will be neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'd continue to favor another rise as long as 0.8739 support holds. Above 0.8936 should bring rally resumption towards 100% projection of 0.8067 to

USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's down trend resumed towards the end of last week by breaking 0.9453 low and reached as low as 0.9445. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.0285 to 0.9666 from 0.9972 at 0.9353 first. On the upside, break of 0.9757 resistance is needed

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD soared to another record high of 1.0976 last week and remained firm. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 1.1 psychological level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to upper channel resistance at 1.1160 next. On the downside, below 1.0862 minor support will turn bias

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF's down trend continued last week and dropped to new record low of 0.8625. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, break of 0.8832 resistance is needed

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD rose further to as high as 1.6744 last week and remained strong. Daily MACD's break of down trend line suggests that the pair is gaining momentum again. Hence, while some consolidations might be seen below 1.6744 temporary top initially this week, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.6431

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

Despite brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 85.51 extended further to as low as 81.03 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside, break of 82.76

US Dollar Continues Downward Spiral

The greenback continues to lose ground against major currencies, with the U.S. dollar Index holding close to a 3-year low in Asian trading, and likely to see the biggest weekly drop since mid-January. 

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD jumped to as high as 1.4880 last week before making temporary top there and retreats mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But retreat is expected to be contained by 1.4492 support and bring another rise. Above 1.4880 will target 161.8% projection

Today's Market Outlook

EURUSD Steadies above 1.4800 level after pullback from fresh yearly high at 1.4880 found support at 1.4772, that now offers initial support, ahead of 4-hour 20 day MA, currently at 1.4735. Main near-term support lies at 1.4645/30 zone. Bullish near-term tone favors fresh attack at 1.4880, break of which to open 1.4900 and psychological level at 1.5000.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

With 120.37 minor support intact, current rebound in EUR/JPY is still in favor to continue towards 123.31 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

At this point, GBP/JPY's rebound fro 132.98 is still in favor to continue and intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay

USD Decline Continues

Selling the dollar remains the ‘by-default’ trade in the post FOMC era. The trade-weighted dollar is moving ever closer to the all-time low. USD/JPY was the exception to the rule, as it didn’t set a new low. Sterling reversed the ‘rebound’ after the Q1 GDP

Pulsating Week Ends On High Note

Thursday's GDP report from the U.S. may have been disappointing on the face of it coming in at only 1.8 percent against 2 percent expected, but considering the components the headline figure distorts the views somewhat. Today, we end the week with a whole host of figures of which the

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 81.26 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside,

Aussie Targeting 1.1 Psychological level

Pair is still searching for a top within an extended fifth wave, with blue wave (v) in progress. Those small pull-backs we are seeing from the tops show corrective personality, so looking for higher levels makes sense. Pair could easily test 1.1000 psychological level, before larger deeper correction takes place.

CABLE – Very Cautiously Bullish Above 1.6617

Supported by positive momentum CABLE was bought to new 17-month highs yesterday. However, these levels were attained in Asia and the European day was dominated by profit taking that reversed all of those overnight gains. Thursday was therefore dominated by the upside rejection but overnight trading has seen a renewal

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8670 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD's rally lost momentum after hitting 1.6744 and made a temporary top there. Some consolidations could be seen now but downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

EUR/CHF continues to stay in consolidation above 1.2728 and intraday bias remains neutral. Note that with 1.2971 resistance intact, we'd favor a break of 1.2728 support eventually. Break of 1.2728 will confirm resumption of fall from 1.3234. Also, this will affirm the view that consolidation from 1.2401 is already finished

Morning Forex Overview

The dollar found some respite in holiday-thinned Asia trade Friday, with the euro and many regional currencies pausing in their upward march, but the Chinese yuan popped to another record high. Currencies that have ridden a wave of risk appetite and dollar-phobia in recent days, such as those of Australia,

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

On Thursday Pound/Dollar corrected downwards with over 120 pips, not exactly in line with the positive Interbank sentiment at under +6%. The Cable depreciated from 1.6748 to 1.6622 yesterday, closing the day at 1.6629. Today the British Pound is making recovery efforts, but movements are within yesterday's range for the

Today's Market Outlook

EURUSD Steadies above 1.4800 level after pullback from fresh yearly high at 1.4880 found support at 1.4772, that now offers initial support, ahead of 4-hour 20 day MA, currently at 1.4735. Main near-term support lies at 1.4645/30 zone. Bullish near-term tone favors fresh attack at 1.4880, break of which to open 1.4900 and psychological level at 1.5000.

Growth Of Bearish Potential As A Factor For EUR/USD Correction

The assumed retracement to the key resistance levels has been confirmed with conditions for realization of the planned short positions. OsMA trend indicator, having marked a drop of parties’ activity, doesn’t contradict with preservation of earlier opened short positions targeting 0,8690/0,8700, 0,8660/70 and/or further breakout variant up to 0,8620/30, 0,8580/90.

Stocks Decline, USD Remains Weak Following Soft US GDP Release

Asian markets declined after US economic growth saw a slowdown with GDP growing 1.8% less than the 2% expectations while Japan remained closed on account of bank holiday. Speculation of drop in earnings reports and South Korean industrial production also led to decline in the markets. US equity markets closed

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

With 120.37 minor support intact, current rebound in EUR/JPY is still in favor to continue towards 123.31 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 139.21 to 105.42 at 126.30 next. On the downside, below 120.37 will turn intraday bias neutral first. Break of 118.49 will

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

At this point, GBP/JPY's rebound fro 132.98 is still in favor to continue and intraday bias remains cautiously on the upside for 139.99 resistance first. On the downside, below 134.06 will turn bias neutral again and bring more consolidations. But after all, note that with 132.96 support intact, we'd stay

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

With 1.4711 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside and further rally is expected to 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.386 from 1.3427 at 1.5024, which is close to 1.5 psychological level. On the downside, below 1.4711 minor support will turn bias neutral again and bring

Forex Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is in a an uptrend, after bottoming at 1.2870 (January 9, 2011). Technical indicators are ascending and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3917 and 1.3440.

USD Decline Continues

Selling the dollar remains the ‘by-default’ trade in the post FOMC era. The trade-weighted dollar is moving ever closer to the all-time low. USD/JPY was the exception to the rule, as it didn’t set a new low. Sterling reversed the ‘rebound’ after the Q1 GDP

Pulsating Week Ends On High Note

Thursday's GDP report from the U.S. may have been disappointing on the face of it coming in at only 1.8 percent against 2 percent expected, but considering the components the headline figure distorts the views somewhat. Today, we end the week with a whole host of figures of which the

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

USD/CAD was held above 0.9453 support and recovers and the development suggests that consolidation from there is still in progress. Intraday bias is turned neutral again and stronger recovery might be seen. But upside is still expected to be limited by near term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.9628)

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment and current rally should now extend further to 1.1 psychological level first. On the downside, however, break of 1.0773 support will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence in 4 hours MACD. In such case, deeper retreat would

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range above 81.26 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 81.26 will indicate that fall from 85.51 has resumed and would then target 61.8% retracement of 76.40 to 85.51 at 79.88 and below. On the upside,

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

USD/CHF's consolidation from 0.8670 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Even in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486.

EUR/CHF Repeating A Double Top At The 1.2960 Resistance

The recent from 1.28 has met resistance at 1.2960. During today’s European session, a double top is forming with a break below the 1.2910 support. The RSI in the 1H chart is breaking below 40 invalidating the bullish momentum, and threatening to establish bearish momentum. Looking at the 4H chart,

Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY

On Thursday Dollar/Yen decreased insignificantly with almost 90 pips, matching the negative Interbank sentiment at bellow -67%. The currency couple depreciated from 82.28 to 81.39 yesterday, closing the day at 81.51. This morning the Dollar is trading neutrally against the Yen, testing yesterday's bottom, which is holding the downward breaks

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD's rally lost momentum after hitting 1.6744 and made a temporary top there. Some consolidations could be seen now but downside is expected to be contained by 1.6431 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6744 will target 100% projection of 1.5343 to 1.6400 from 1.5935 at 1.6992, which is close to 1.7 psychological level and 1.7043 key resistance.

European Market Update

The Thai Fin Min confirmed what the FX markets long suspected on the Far East view of the greenback. Thailand Fin Min commented that the US could only repay its debt through currency devaluation. The minister also confirmed that its central bank has been both buying and selling USD in

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

On Thursday Pound/Dollar corrected downwards with over 120 pips, not exactly in line with the positive Interbank sentiment at under +6%. The Cable depreciated from 1.6748 to 1.6622 yesterday, closing the day at 1.6629. Today the British Pound is making recovery efforts, but movements are within yesterday's range for the